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MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 7/9-7/112010-07-09
This weekend in Major League Baseball offers up the last set of games before the all-star break, and these series’ are often looked at as key indicators of what we might expect from teams as they come out the break. Over the next few days, teams can either build confidence or momentum that they can savior in the three days off, or be left to think about how they’ll pick up the pieces once the action resumes next Thursday. Some clubs, like the Yankees, Rays, White Sox, and Rockies have already started building for a second half run. Others like the Angels, Red Sox, and Cardinals need to stop the bleeding this weekend. Let’s take a look at the action on tap for the next three days and reveal this weekend’s list of Top StatFox Power Trends to consider as you build your wagering lineup.
In the American League, two of the three division leaders will be battling the bottom feeders in their opposite divisions. The Rangers, who lost the first of a four-game set at home versus the lowly Orioles, will look to sweep the rest of the weekend, figuring to be heavily favored in each game. Baltimore is an atrocious 10-34 on the road this season, while the Rangers have gone 31-16 at home. The Yankees are in Seattle for the weekend, riding a league-best six-game winning streak. They took the first game vs. the Mariners on Thursday, but are just 2-3 in their L5 against Seattle, having mustered only 12 runs. Elsewhere, in another hot vs. not matchup, the Rays, also winners of their last six games and sitting atop the wildcard standings, take on the last place Indians in Tampa.
The Red Sox will try to break a second-half trend of road woes that began last season when they visit Toronto. Boston comes off a sweep at the hands of the Rays and has now lost four straight games, losing a game on each occasion in the standings to the front-running Yankees. The Sox are now 5-games out, but they have fared quite well vs. the Jays in 2010, going 5-1, including a sweep in Toronto back in April. Finally, in Detroit, the streaking Tigers, 7-3 in their last 10 games, welcome the Twins to town. Detroit is scoring 5.9 runs per game during the surge and has pounded out double-digit hits in eight of the 10 games. Minnesota meanwhile, is reeling, just 5-11 in its L16 games. However, the Twins boast an impressive 19-10 mark in divisional games this season, including 6-3 vs. the Tigers.
The National League slate for the weekend is highlighted by two key series’ pitting the top two teams from the East and West divisions against one another. In the East, the Mets, currently trailing by 3-games to Atlanta, welcome the Braves to town, looking to repeat a late-April sweep at Citi Field in which the visitors mustered a total of three runs. Atlanta, the league’s best home team, has not played nearly as well on the road, going just 20-25, but does come off a key series victory at Philadelphia. Out West, the Padres will visit the Rockies, with Colorado also looking to slice into a 3-game deficit in the standings. The hosts have won eight of their L10 games, with their bats having awoken. The Rockies have topped the 10-hit mark in seven straight games but will be tested by the league’s top pitching staff. The Padres allow a league-best 3.3 runs per game with opponents batting just .235 on the season.
Get in on all of this weekend’s action before the break, and don’t forget to consult our list of Top StatFox Power Trends before you hit the confirm button on your wagers.
<b><i>SAN FRANCISCO at WASHINGTON</b></i>
<li>WASHINGTON is 38-82 (-25.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>CINCINNATI at PHILADELPHIA</b></i>
<li>CINCINNATI is 23-12 (+10.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 5.1, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>ATLANTA at NY METS</b></i>
<li>NY METS are 10-2 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was NY METS 4.7, OPPONENT 2.4 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>ST LOUIS at HOUSTON</b></i>
<li>ST LOUIS is 29-14 UNDER (+13.1 Units) vs. a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.2, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>PITTSBURGH at MILWAUKEE</b></i>
<li>MILWAUKEE is 18-29 (-19.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.1, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>SAN DIEGO at COLORADO</b></i>
<li>SAN DIEGO is 20-9 (+15.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.7, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 3*)
<b><i>FLORIDA at ARIZONA</b></i>
<li>ARIZONA is 15-34 (-21.1 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 4.7, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>CHICAGO CUBS at LA DODGERS</b></i>
<li>CHICAGO CUBS are 16-34 (-18.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.3, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>BOSTON at TORONTO</b></i>
<li>BOSTON is 3-13 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 3.3, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>MINNESOTA at DETROIT</b></i>
<li>MINNESOTA is 7-22 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 3.3, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>CLEVELAND at TAMPA BAY</b></i>
<li>TAMPA BAY is 18-5 (+10.3 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 5.7, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 0*)
<b><i>BALTIMORE at TEXAS</b></i>
<li>BALTIMORE is 11-37 (-20.6 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.3, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>KANSAS CITY at CHI WHITE SOX</b></i>
<li>KANSAS CITY is 23-12 (+13.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 4.8, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>LA ANGELS at OAKLAND</b></i>
<li>LA ANGELS are 16-6 (+10.0 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>NY YANKEES at SEATTLE</b></i>
<li>NY YANKEES are 27-11 UNDER (+14.3 Units) in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 4.3, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
June’s Best and Worst MLB Hurlers 2010-06-01
If it’s June, school is out. And so too will be the NBA (we think). It’s also the time of the season when MLB pitchers look to ace exams in hopes of keeping their teams in the pennant chase. To get a better feel on what to expect, Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com and Doug Upstone of StatFox.com analyze their results from exams in the past.
Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of June. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in June team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each June over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with July’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…
GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:
Floyd, Gavin • 10-2
The White Sox are hoping for quick reversal for what has been disappointing season for right-hander at
2-5 and unseemly 6.02 ERA. His manager has been riding him about his lack of mental toughness this season.
Haren, Dan • 13-4
After showing great consistency in Arizona uniform, Haren has been like his D-Backs teammates with 5-4 record and 5.35 ERA. Though his strikeout to walk ratio is still among the best in the big leagues, he grooved far too many pitches in permitting 16 home runs.
Hernandez, Felix • 12-2
It’s time for the “King” to start pitching like one. Hernandez hasn’t won a game since April (neither has Seattle in his starts), saddled with lack of run support and his occasional poor pitching. Time for Felix to elevate his game.
Kazmir, Scott • 8-4
The Angels lefty is becoming known for giving up big innings, explaining 3-5 record and 6.34 ERA. Amazingly, he’s been deplorable against left-hand hitters who are batting incomprehensible .500 against him starting June, compared to .238 vs. RH swingers.
Lackey, John • 11-4
The tall Texan has been a mild disappointment in Boston with 4.84 ERA to go with his 5-3 record. Lackey doesn’t have the over-powering hard stuff any longer and has to get by on guile, throwing in a smaller ballpark.
Nolasco, Ricky • 8-2
The sturdy Nolasco (4-4) still is throwing strikes, but having trouble hitting his spots deep in the count. He only totaled 15 K’s in May after having 29 punch-outs in same number of starts (5) in April. If he gets the feel of fastball or slider back, he should have another outstanding June.
Pettitte, Andy • 11-5
The 37-year port-sider might be having his best season yet in his career with 7-1 mark and 2.48 ERA. What’s fun to watch about Pettitte these days is where the catcher puts the glove that is where he throws the ball, which helps him get the benefit of the doubt from umpires.
Wakefield, Tim • 11-5
Being used as spot starter to fill in for injured Boston pitchers.
Zambrano, Carlos • 14-3
Believed to be rejoining the starting rotation this month, the Cubs could use a typical June from Big Z.
BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Arroyo, Bronson • 4-13
The Reds starter should have the last name of yo-yo, since that is how he tends to pitch. Obviously this month falls in the “down” category.
Blanton, Joe • 5-12
Blanton has been unimpressive since coming off the disabled list with 1-4 record and 5.68 ERA. Pitches are up in the zone and being ripped.
Garland, Jon • 5-11
The much-traveled hurler has found a home at spacious Petco Park and is 6-2 with sharp 2.55 ERA this season. At home in San Diego, Garland is Ubaldo-like with miniscule 1.15 ERA. Can he keep it going?
Hernandez, Livan • 6-12
Washington has gotten far more than they could have ever expected from Hernandez, who is 4-2 with superb 2.15 ERA. In the last few years, he’s gotten off to starts somewhat similar, but by the third month of the season, the bite of his pitches starts to lose effectiveness and the spots he was wearing out are not as consistent, leading to more hits, runs and defeats piling up.
Hudson, Tim • 4-8
Hudson is healthier than he’s been in years (5-1, 2.24), which might be the greatest factor in how he performs this month.
MLB: Twins and Yankees ALDS Betting Preview2009-10-07
The New York Yankees went on an unparalleled spending spree last season and it ended up helping them have the best record in baseball at 103-59. Everyone knows that is fine and dandy, however how New York plays in October will determine if it was money well spent. They’ll start the playoffs as the league favorite at +160 to win the World Series according to Sportsbook.com. They are also a heavy divisional series favorite over the Twins. See all the exciting game, series, and prop options available on the LIVE ODDS page.
The Yankees haven’t played in the World Series since 2001 and haven’t won the Fall Classic since taking home the big trophy in years 1998-2000. Mr. Yankee Derek Jeter understands better than anybody why this team could be different.
“We have much better pitching, and this lineup allows everyone to be more aggressive because we have good hitters 1-9.”
New York’s dominance pops up in a couple of different ways. In games decided by two or more runs, they were 62-43. At the new Yankee Stadium they built a 57-24 record and if Minnesota or anyone dares to start a left-hander against them, good luck, with the Bronx Bombers 36-18.
The Minnesota will make the unlikely journey to New York riding high. The Twins won what might be the best baseball game anyone will see the rest of the season Tuesday night, taking down Detroit 6-5 in 12 sensational innings.
The Twins are the hottest team remaining, winning 17 of last 22, including the all important last five in a row. Minnesota will have their work cut out for them since they lost all seven games to the Yankees this season and they have one victory in last 11 tries playing in the Bronx.
The Yankees are easily the biggest favorite to win the four divisional series at -400 and are the odds on favorite at Sportsbook.com to be champions yet again at +160 odds. Let’s see what the Yankees do.
Offensive – American League
Runs scored Minnesota 4th New York 1st
Home Runs Minnesota 9th New York 1st
Slugging Pct. Minnesota 7th New York 1st
Walks Minnesota 4th New York 1st
On base Pct. Minnesota 5th New York 1st
Pitching & Defense
ERA Minnesota 11th New York 4th
Strikeouts Minnesota 10th New York 1st
Walks Minnesota 1st New York 11th
On base Pct. Minnesota 7th New York 4th
Putouts Minnesota 6th New York 3rd
Errors Minnesota T-1st New York 5th